Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
